4.1.2 Completion rate (primary education, lower secondary education, upper secondary education)

Broadly, factors that promote high school graduation can be categorized into five categories: individual, family, school, peer, and community contexts. A 2016 study reviewing US longitudinal research from the past 25 years identified 12 characteristics within these contexts that shed light on what influences high school completion.

Individually, factors that contribute to graduation include motivation, engagement, youth expectations for attainment, and locus of control. Families also play an important role in promoting graduation, particularly parents who provide resources, opportunities, and guidance. Children were found to be more likely to graduate and achieve academically when parents were involved in educational experiences either at home or at school. Positive parent-child relationships were also a predictor of continued enrollment in school.

In the peer context, four studies showed evidence that positive peer norms related to academic achievement increased the likelihood of graduation. School level factors promoting high school completion include positive student-teacher relationships, school sponsored extracurricular activities, and small school size. Career and technical education courses were also shown to have a positive outcome on graduation and continued enrollment, particularly for students already identified as at risk for non-completion. For example, the Hampton City School District in Virginia attributes its low 1.2% dropout rate and high 96.18% graduation rate to instruction through a career pathways lens. Participation in community-based out-of-school time programs were found to promote graduation primarily among socioeconomically disadvantaged students of color.

The four year high school graduation rate in public schools in 2021 was 70.6% in DC, 87.2% in Maryland, and 93.0% in Virginia. Despite DC public school’s comparatively low graduation rate, it increased 1.92% from the 2019-2020 academic year. From the 2018-2019 academic year to the 2019-2020 academic year, DC saw graduation rate increases for Hispanic/Latino students by 3.84%, 2.54% for African American students, 4.5% for English learning students, and 2.54% for students with disabilities. These however are modest gains considering 64.66% of students enrolled in DC in 2020-2021 were Black/African American and 18.50% are Hispanic/Latino.

Understanding what factors influence students to drop out of high school can better help discern how to target and guide at-risk students towards graduation. A 2013 study categorized the factors influencing high school dropout into push, pull, and fall out. Discipline and attendance policies, tests, and consequences of poor behavior are examples of factors that would push a student out of school. A student, however, might be pulled out of school due to circumstances such as family needs, financial struggles, illness, or childbirth. Lastly, falling out of school refers to the scenario or process of a student gradually becoming more apathetic or disillusioned towards school progress and without support, disappearing from the system.

A Montgomery County Public Schools 2019 memorandum exploring causes of dropout identified English language learner students in their district as particularly at risk for leaving school due to the difficulty in understanding academic content in a second language or they may need to work to supplement their family’s income or provide childcare. Facing similar challenges with the lowest graduation rate and highest dropout rate in Virginia in 2020, Richmond school’s chief academic officer credited programs ¡Con Ganas! and Newcomer Academy in supporting English learning Latino students for the 7.3% increase in graduation rate from 2020 to 2021.